How we tip
Every tip here comes from the declared racecard and a scoring model, is staked on a fixed points scale and is graded against the official result.
Model inputs
For each runner, the model checks the previous six starts, including finishing position and field size. It also reads the official rating compared with the field, course, distance, beaten-favourite marks, days since the most recent start and lifetime win rate. At half weight, the best bookmaker price is included in the mix. A horse ignored by the market needs a strong record to rank first.
We convert the scores into win chances, which total 100% across the field. For every horse, we express that chance as fractional odds to set our price. We mark a runner as value if the highest available price exceeds our price.
Data coverage and confidence bands
- The A band
- A margin of at least 12 points puts our pick ahead of the second choice, while at least 80% of the runner data is in our hands.
- The B band
- A gap of at least 6 points and coverage of at least 60% of the data.
- The C band
- Anything nearer than that, or a race with little data. We still name a pick, but we make that clear.
Coverage comes from seven fields (jockey, trainer, rating, recent form, days off, a price and career record). It is the share of those the card holds across all runners. Every verdict prints it.
Grading and points
- Tip for the win market
- at the advised price, a win scores 1 point.
- An each-way tip
- when published, the race's place terms applied to 0.5 points each way, making 1 point in total.
- Runner does not start
- The tip is void. A replacement tip receives a grade by itself and includes the time it was made.
When a tip is published, it's written into a dated log and never edited afterwards. Once the result is in, we grade it at the advised price and at the starting price. The live record begins on the day when the first tip is graded, and we never backdate it. Any published model test using past races is labelled as a test and kept separate from that record.
Today's cards?
We show a verdict on a race page only if we have its complete runner card. If we have only the time, trip, class, field size and going, the page lists those details with each-way terms but makes no pick. We never fill a gap by guessing.